The coming Ice Age

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But scientists are pure at heart with no agenda and peer review can have no flaw. Don't even try to disparage "consensus".:haha::rolleyes:
 
Oh Crap, now they found out that the Himalayan Glaciers, that were supposed to be melted off by 2035 haven't lost any ice in ten years.....it just keeps unraveling :haha:

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012...st-no-ice-in-past-10-years-new-study-reveals/
As usual, you either didn't bother to read anything or you're intentionally misrepresenting the data. And Fox News is definitely misrepresenting the data. From their own article, they say the Himalayan glacier ice loss rate is 4 billion tons per year. 4 billion tons of ice per year = "no ice." Great reporting, Fox News...

As for "it just keeps unraveling..." It sure does... the same satellites that showed that the Himalayan glaciers aren't receding nearly as fast as predicted also showed that the total ice loss per year is 534 billion tons of ice lost annually. The ice just keeps unraveling...

Nature.com said:
Glaciers and ice caps (GICs) are important contributors to present-day global mean sea level rise<sup>1, 2, 3, 4</sup>. Most previous global mass balance estimates for GICs rely on extrapolation of sparse mass balance measurements<sup>1, 2, 4</sup> representing only a small fraction of the GIC area, leaving their overall contribution to sea level rise unclear. Here we show that GICs, excluding the Greenland and Antarctic peripheral GICs, lost mass at a rate of 148 
 
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As usual, you either didn't bother to read anything or you're intentionally misrepresenting the data. And Fox News is definitely misrepresenting the data. From their own article, they say the Himalayan glacier ice loss rate is 4 billion tons per year. 4 billion tons of ice per year = "no ice." Great reporting, Fox News...

As for "it just keeps unraveling..." It sure does... the same satellites that showed that the Himalayan glaciers aren't receding nearly as fast as predicted also showed that the total ice loss per year from glaciers and ice caps is 148 billion tons of ice lost annually. The ice just keeps unraveling...



http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.html

You are right the scientists were only off by 46 billion tons of ice per year, no reason to argue over tiny little figures like that, and let's also leave out the ocean currents which have changed to bring warmer waters from the Pacific into the Artic and the effects of wind blowing in from the Bearing sea, and the Polar Bear populations higher than they were 30 years ago....all of that is insignificant.

The earth has been warming for 12,000 years, and with it, the ice melts, as I recall, and correct me if I'm wrong, SUVs weren't around 12,000 years ago to start the warming process....but maybe I'm wrong again.
 
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It doesn't matter if science is wrong or has a political slant. Science will correct itself, you just have to wait and believe.:eeek::haha:
 
It doesn't matter if science is wrong or has a political slant. Science will correct itself, you just have to wait and believe.:eeek::haha:

I totally agree, I am not against science, I am against all the EPA and government regulations that are forced upon us because of an over-hyped theory that so far has about a 3% chance of being correct, you are correct though, in 25yrs we would probably all laugh if it weren't for the $5 dollar gas, the diesel trucks that should be getting 21mpg, but due to smog crap are getting 14mpg, LEED Credits, building requirements and the list goes on forever.
 
You are right the scientists were only off by 46 billion tons of ice per year, no reason to argue over tiny little figures like that, and let's also leave out the ocean currents which have changed to bring warmer waters from the Pacific into the Artic and the effects of wind blowing in from the Bearing sea, and the Polar Bear populations higher than they were 30 years ago....all of that is insignificant.
Sure, they were off by an order of magnitude. Not a small error, but they used the best data the had at the time. Now they have better data and can make better predictions. That's how science works.

And I'm not sure what ocean currents have to do with the ice mass of Himalayan glaciers... you do understand that's a mountain range in the middle of Asia, right? :fawkdancesmiley:

Last time I checked, polar bear population isn't a major factor in determining the mass of ice in Himalayan glaciers, either.

The earth has been warming for 12,000 years, and with it, the ice melts, as I recall, and correct me if I'm wrong, SUVs weren't around 12,000 years ago to start the warming process....but maybe I'm wrong again.
Care to share your source for "the earth has been warming for 12,000 years?"
Holocene_Temperature_Variations_Rev.png

From http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations_Rev_png

See the link for descriptions of the various data sets used to construct the graph.

All the multi-source reconstructions of Holocene temperatures I have seen point to the same conclusions. The first couple thousand years warmed significantly, the the last eight thousand years have been fairly stable (with some small fluctuations) until the last century and a half.

Unless you can back up your assertions with data (and your track record is not good, by the way...), I would say, yes. Yes, you are wrong. About many things... for instance, your implication that anybody actually believes that SUVs are the only cause of global warming. Perhaps you should go back and read all my posts in this thread again. There you will find information about climate forcings. You will learn (if only...) that atmospheric CO2 is but one piece of the climate puzzle.

But then again... you haven't figured it out, yet, so I doubt you will.

It doesn't matter if science is wrong or has a political slant. Science will correct itself, you just have to wait and believe.:eeek::haha:
No belief necessary. I know you're just being a troll, but (belief aside) what you posted is exactly what happened. Let me walk you through it...

1. Scientists collect data from low-elevation glaciers.
2. Scientists use this data (the best data available at the time) to make a model and predictions about high-elevation glaciers.
3. Scientists collect data from high-elevation glaciers.
4. Scientists discover that their predictions from the low-level data do not extrapolate well to high-elevation glaciers.
5. Scientists revise their model to include the data from high-elevation glaciers.

Science corrected itself, we just had to wait for better data.

I totally agree, I am not against science (except when its conclusions are inconvenient in some way), I am against all the EPA and government regulations that are forced upon us because of an over-hyped theory that so far has about a 3% chance of being correct, you are correct though, in 25yrs we would probably all laugh if it weren't for the $5 dollar gas, the diesel trucks that should be getting 21mpg, but due to smog crap are getting 14mpg, LEED Credits, building requirements and the list goes on forever.
Fixed it for you, Jay.
 
No belief necessary. I know you're just being a troll, but (belief aside) what you posted is exactly what happened. Let me walk you through it...


.

No trolling, man made global warming is so far into the political arena that what to do about it (or what not to do) is being decided by politicians and lawyers.
And your belief that science is pure and always corrects itself is just a self fulfilling prophecy. If its incorrect, we just have to wait longer and longer and eventually it will be right, if it's still not, just wait longer. People are involved and we all have beliefs, agendas, preconceived notions that influence and steer the paradigm. You have a belief that science is this pure, untainted thing.:;
 
No trolling, man made global warming is so far into the political arena that what to do about it (or what not to do) is being decided by politicians and lawyers.
I don't disagree with you here. It has been highly politicized, but you'll note that I don't argue about what we should do about it. I only care to argue about the science. :awesomework:

And your belief that science is pure and always corrects itself is just a self fulfilling prophecy. If its incorrect, we just have to wait longer and longer and eventually it will be right, if it's still not, just wait longer. People are involved and we all have beliefs, agendas, preconceived notions that influence and steer the paradigm. You have a belief that science is this pure, untainted thing.:;
No, I don't. Have you been reading ANYTHING I post? Post 376.
 
Sure, they were off by an order of magnitude. Not a small error, but they used the best data the had at the time. Now they have better data and can make better predictions. That's how science works.

And I'm not sure what ocean currents have to do with the ice mass of Himalayan glaciers... you do understand that's a mountain range in the middle of Asia, right? :fawkdancesmiley:

Last time I checked, polar bear population isn't a major factor in determining the mass of ice in Himalayan glaciers, either.

Maybe you should go back and read what I was responding to, you stated Ice Caps, I thought you were referring to the polar ice caps that come up so often in this discussion. You crack me up though, "They were just off by an order of magnitude" :haha: So, over the past ten years the scientist thought it had lost 500 billion tons of ice (50 per year) while all along it had only lost 40 billion tons (4 per year) 500 vs 40:eeek: Sometimes I wonder if you actually believe what you write or if you just try to defend it because it's "Science" I'm just having fun watching it all fall apart :D

And here's a better chart, Can you see any patterns here?
800px-Vostok_Petit_data.svg.png
 
Maybe you should go back and read what I was responding to, you stated Ice Caps, I thought you were referring to the polar ice caps that come up so often in this discussion. You crack me up though, "They were just off by an order of magnitude" :haha: So, over the past ten years the scientist thought it had lost 500 billion tons of ice (50 per year) while all along it had only lost 40 billion tons (4 per year) 500 vs 40:eeek: Sometimes I wonder if you actually believe what you write or if you just try to defend it because it's "Science" I'm just having fun watching it all fall apart :D
You know, Jay, those little marks you used "... those guys. Those are quotation marks. Typically in between those goes the stuff that the other person actually said, not random **** you feel like putting in there. An order of magnitude is a large error, which is why I said, "Sure, they were off by an order of magnitude. Not a small error, but they used the best data the had at the time."

50 billion tons vs 4 billion ton... order of magnitude. 500 billion tons vs. 40 billion tons... oh wait, that's still an order of magnitude. Why not go for 5 trillion vs. 400 billion? Oh yeah... because it is still off by an order of magnitude.

And here's a better chart, Can you see any patterns here?
800px-Vostok_Petit_data.svg.png
Sure, I see lots of patterns there. The important ones being related to the Milankovitch cycles. Patterns that take thousands of years... patterns that scientists understand quite well. Patterns that are not the cause of the current warming trend we are seeing.
 
Komo 4 just reported that the sea level dropped 2/10s of an inch over the last year...
Individual years can certainly have sea level drops, but when you look at the data as a whole, it has a very strong (and accelerating) trend upward.
Sea-Level-1.gif

Image from here.
 
You know, Jay, those little marks you used "... those guys. Those are quotation marks. Typically in between those goes the stuff that the other person actually said, not random **** you feel like putting in there.

they were off by an order of magnitude

"They were just off by an order of magnitude"

I see your point :eeek:

An order of magnitude is a large error, which is why I said, "Sure, they were off by an order of magnitude. Not a small error, but they used the best data the had at the time."

50 billion tons vs 4 billion ton... order of magnitude. 500 billion tons vs. 40 billion tons... oh wait, that's still an order of magnitude. Why not go for 5 trillion vs. 400 billion? Oh yeah... because it is still off by an order of magnitude.

Why even use "order of magnitude"? Why not just call it like it is, they were completely wrong. You are starting to sound like Bobr does with politics.

Sure, I see lots of patterns there. The important ones being related to the Milankovitch cycles. Patterns that take thousands of years... patterns that scientists understand quite well. Patterns that are not the cause of the current warming trend we are seeing.

There shouldn't be any patterns if fossil fuels are the only reason for the increase in the Earths temperatures, how ever did it warm up before without us nasty parasites burning fossil fuels?
 
Individual years can certainly have sea level drops, but when you look at the data as a whole, it has a very strong (and accelerating) trend upward.
Sea-Level-1.gif

Image from here.

I'm not on either side of the argument, but i have what i think is a reasonable set of questions.

Why does your graph only show 140 years back?

Do you expect sea levels to remain exactly where they are forever?

What were the highest and lowest recorded sea levels in history?

Would there be a crisis if sea levels were dropping?
 
There shouldn't be any patterns if fossil fuels are the only reason for the increase in the Earths temperatures, how ever did it warm up before without us nasty parasites burning fossil fuels?
facepalm_implied.jpg


Who EVER claimed that "fossil fuels are the only reason for the increase in the Earths temperatures"?

I hope you don't approach life the way you approach this discussion...
 
facepalm_implied.jpg


Who EVER claimed that "fossil fuels are the only reason for the increase in the Earths temperatures"?

I hope you don't approach life the way you approach this discussion...

Come on man, and he was so close to admitting it. :kissmyass:
 
I see your point :eeek:
My point is that I never said it was "just" an order of magnitude. An order of magnitude is a lot, and I said so.

Why even use "order of magnitude"? Why not just call it like it is, they were completely wrong. You are starting to sound like Bobr does with politics.
Because they weren't completely wrong; the glaciers ARE losing ice.

There shouldn't be any patterns if fossil fuels are the only reason for the increase in the Earths temperatures, how ever did it warm up before without us nasty parasites burning fossil fuels?
If you keep this up, I will eventually think you really are just an idiot. So far, I'm still giving you the benefit of the doubt... just a heads up...
 
IIRC The sea level has been dropping in Alaska since the '40's
The global sea level is rising... everywhere, hence is being called global. The land in Alaska, however, is rising faster than the global sea level, so the relative sea level in Alaska is falling.

NY Times said:
The geology is complex, but it boils down to this: Relieved of billions of tons of glacial weight, the land has risen much as a cushion regains its shape after someone gets up from a couch. The land is ascending so fast that the rising seas
 
Patterns take thousands of years... but currently scientists are using patterns that are less than 200 yrs old to "prove" man made global warming.:eeek:
Umm... no. You know that lovely pattern we have of day and night? Doesn't take thousands of years to cycle. How about the lunar cycle? Nope... not thousands of years. The seasons as the Earth orbits the Sun? Oh... nope, not thousands there, either. Sunspot cycle? ****... only 11 years.

SOME patterns take thousands of years to develop. What scientists are doing is showing that the current warming trend doesn't appear to match the other cycles.
 
I'm not on either side of the argument, but i have what i think is a reasonable set of questions. Good questions, I might add.

Why does your graph only show 140 years back? That particular graph was constructed using measurements of sea level, and those measurements are only available recently. If you check the link I provided for that graph, you will find other graphs that reconstruct sea level data much farther back.

Do you expect sea levels to remain exactly where they are forever? No, of course not. Sea level has and will continue to fluctuate alongside temperature and global ice levels.

What were the highest and lowest recorded sea levels in history? That same paper has a graph of the last 140 kyr. Lowest sea level on that graph is about 150 meters lower than it is now. The same graph shows the highest levels around 120 kyr ago. They weren't much higher than now, but the resolution on the graph makes it difficult to get a number off it. Less than 10 meters higher.

Would there be a crisis if sea levels were dropping? Other than the implication that global temperatures were dropping, no. Sea levels dropping doesn't risk flooding of major metropolitan areas, though; sea levels rising does.

What happens when you compare ice core samples from greenlands ice sheet and look back over the last 4000 years?

http://www.forces.org/Forces_Articles/article_viewer.php?id=516
global_warming_chart.gif
Individual sites are not good indicators of global trends. This is why current models use historical data from around the world. Multiple ice cores, sedimentary records, etc.
 
SOME patterns take thousands of years to develop. What scientists are doing is showing that the current warming trend doesn't appear to match the other cycles.

Because they're taking a small snap shot of process that takes thousands of years and has a lot of variability year to year. Then using that data to try and make policy based on what they think they know. You must not work in government. I have three immediate relatives who do. Here's how it works a lot of the time. They decision is made what they want to do, then they decide what data they need to support it, then a study is done which gives them the "proof" they need. Another instance, a study is done by an agency, it shows that what they're doing is useless but they have funding/jobs to protect so the study disappears. I have dozens of these stories about gov "scientists" who first and foremost protect their job and next move their agenda. They just use "science" to do it. You believe in these studies, I believe that people want to keep their job and move an agenda. You have more faith in people than I do.
 
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