I
InDaShop
Guest
Just heard Ike made Cat 4 status!!!
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wngrog
Guest
Latest track?
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wontwork
Guest
Perfect! I am shure everyone on the coast is excited also.
W
wontwork
Guest
wngrog said:
http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=6584&from=hp_main_tab2
I
InDaShop
Guest
Here is the updating noaa linked pic
Out internal discussion
IKE
140 MPH Cat. 4 hurricane is about 475 miles northeast of the northern most Leeward Islands moving west-
northwest (290 deg) near 16 MPH. Ike rapidly intensified under ideal environmental conditions that lasted about
24 hrs…..but since has peaked during the night and is beginning to slowly weaken because of some fairly strong
northerly wind shear. The shear is modeled to inhibit Ike for the next few days…..then is expected to weaken
about the time the hurricane is approaching the Turks Cacaos Islands Sunday. Ike will probably weaken to a
lower end Cat. 3 or thereabouts and stabilize. The synoptic pattern is evolving as expected with a deep layer
Mid Atlantic ridge north of Ike waiting to build westward behind Hanna…..as Hanna rapidly lifts out to the north
and then northeast the next three days. This will force Ike west or possibly west-southwest towards the Turks
Cacaos and Southern Bahama Islands. The NEW European model that updated a short time ago shows a stronger
Western Atlantic ridge…..and has shifted its Ike projections about 150-200 miles south to near Havana Monday
evening…..then forecasting a northwest forward motion into the Central GOM . This is a dramatic change from
the last several runs of the model…..a model that has to be taken seriously considering it’s relatively low past
verification errors. Hanna has stirred the water up in the Bahamas and Turks causing some upwelling of slightly
cooler water to the surface. This should lower the heat content of the water available for Ike somewhat limiting
potential strengthening beyond Cat 3 in that area. Confidence is moderate to high that the Bahamas will be
significantly impacted. Some of the reliable normally left side bias guidance model beyond five days show a
Southeast / East Coast US impact…..while other normally right side bias models have Ike recurving to the
northeast without a US landfall. Also very long term climatology supports a recurving storm in the Atlantic…..
albeit close in to the US. Bottom Line is….. it’s too early to tell with a high degree of confidence if Ike will severely
impact the Southeast United States or GOM. It will likely be Monday or Tuesday before that question can be
answered. For the record…..I still favor Ike as an Atlantic side hurricane vs a GOM storm…..but my confidence has
been lowered by the latest ECMFW run.
Out internal discussion
IKE
140 MPH Cat. 4 hurricane is about 475 miles northeast of the northern most Leeward Islands moving west-
northwest (290 deg) near 16 MPH. Ike rapidly intensified under ideal environmental conditions that lasted about
24 hrs…..but since has peaked during the night and is beginning to slowly weaken because of some fairly strong
northerly wind shear. The shear is modeled to inhibit Ike for the next few days…..then is expected to weaken
about the time the hurricane is approaching the Turks Cacaos Islands Sunday. Ike will probably weaken to a
lower end Cat. 3 or thereabouts and stabilize. The synoptic pattern is evolving as expected with a deep layer
Mid Atlantic ridge north of Ike waiting to build westward behind Hanna…..as Hanna rapidly lifts out to the north
and then northeast the next three days. This will force Ike west or possibly west-southwest towards the Turks
Cacaos and Southern Bahama Islands. The NEW European model that updated a short time ago shows a stronger
Western Atlantic ridge…..and has shifted its Ike projections about 150-200 miles south to near Havana Monday
evening…..then forecasting a northwest forward motion into the Central GOM . This is a dramatic change from
the last several runs of the model…..a model that has to be taken seriously considering it’s relatively low past
verification errors. Hanna has stirred the water up in the Bahamas and Turks causing some upwelling of slightly
cooler water to the surface. This should lower the heat content of the water available for Ike somewhat limiting
potential strengthening beyond Cat 3 in that area. Confidence is moderate to high that the Bahamas will be
significantly impacted. Some of the reliable normally left side bias guidance model beyond five days show a
Southeast / East Coast US impact…..while other normally right side bias models have Ike recurving to the
northeast without a US landfall. Also very long term climatology supports a recurving storm in the Atlantic…..
albeit close in to the US. Bottom Line is….. it’s too early to tell with a high degree of confidence if Ike will severely
impact the Southeast United States or GOM. It will likely be Monday or Tuesday before that question can be
answered. For the record…..I still favor Ike as an Atlantic side hurricane vs a GOM storm…..but my confidence has
been lowered by the latest ECMFW run.
under_psi
CROSS POST POLICE
nothing to worry about....
1TONZR2
Big mudda fugga!
for you! I might get called up to state active duty for this **** if it stays as strong as it is now and hits FL....that will be gay, prolly keep me from going to Harlan......PLEASE GOTO MEXICO or out to the Atlantic
I
InDaShop
Guest
IKE
120 MPH Cat. 3 hurricane is about 550 miles east-northeast of Grand Turk Island moving slightly south of due
west (260 deg) near 16 MPH. Ike has weakened a little due to a fair amount of northeasterly shear. This slow
weakening trend may bring Ike to Category 2 status by Saturday. The shear is modeled to lessen in a day or
two…..in the mean time Ike could weaken to a Cat.2…..but probably not below. The synoptic players on the
map are evolving so far as expected with a strong deep layer ridge center north of Ike…..with a finger of ridging
building southwest ahead of Ike between Ike and the rapidly departing Hanna. The ridge has already turned Ike
to the left (south of due west)…..a little sooner than the models predicted. This increases the confidence that
Ike will eventually make its way into the GOM next week. Ike should at least be a Category 3 hurricane…..if not
stronger…..on its approach to South FL or Cuba. As with Gustav…..Ike may take a swipe at Cuba before entering
the GOM. The frictional forces of land would disrupt the wind field enough to weaken the hurricane at least one
category. Presently my window of forecast track is basically from Miami to Central Cuba. There is a chance Ike
could shoot the gap between Cuba and Southern FL…..in which case would make it easier to maintain Cat. 3 or
higher. At this time there is nothing in the models that leads me to believe there will be any significant wind shear
over Ike once Ike gets west of the Southern Bahamas / Turks Islands into the GOM. Therefore…..I would expect
Ike to enter the GOM as a Category 3 or stronger hurricane. Bottom Line is….. it’s too early to tell with a high
degree of confidence if Ike will make landfall on Southern Florida or track through the GOM Production Region. It
will likely be Sunday or Monday before that question can be answered. From Ike’s present position Climatology
favors an Atlantic side hurricane vs a GOM storm…..however…..as with Cat 5 Andrew in 1992 Climatology is
occasionally overruled!
We are calling for another Louisiana hit based on the last run of the European model that has been spot on this season.
120 MPH Cat. 3 hurricane is about 550 miles east-northeast of Grand Turk Island moving slightly south of due
west (260 deg) near 16 MPH. Ike has weakened a little due to a fair amount of northeasterly shear. This slow
weakening trend may bring Ike to Category 2 status by Saturday. The shear is modeled to lessen in a day or
two…..in the mean time Ike could weaken to a Cat.2…..but probably not below. The synoptic players on the
map are evolving so far as expected with a strong deep layer ridge center north of Ike…..with a finger of ridging
building southwest ahead of Ike between Ike and the rapidly departing Hanna. The ridge has already turned Ike
to the left (south of due west)…..a little sooner than the models predicted. This increases the confidence that
Ike will eventually make its way into the GOM next week. Ike should at least be a Category 3 hurricane…..if not
stronger…..on its approach to South FL or Cuba. As with Gustav…..Ike may take a swipe at Cuba before entering
the GOM. The frictional forces of land would disrupt the wind field enough to weaken the hurricane at least one
category. Presently my window of forecast track is basically from Miami to Central Cuba. There is a chance Ike
could shoot the gap between Cuba and Southern FL…..in which case would make it easier to maintain Cat. 3 or
higher. At this time there is nothing in the models that leads me to believe there will be any significant wind shear
over Ike once Ike gets west of the Southern Bahamas / Turks Islands into the GOM. Therefore…..I would expect
Ike to enter the GOM as a Category 3 or stronger hurricane. Bottom Line is….. it’s too early to tell with a high
degree of confidence if Ike will make landfall on Southern Florida or track through the GOM Production Region. It
will likely be Sunday or Monday before that question can be answered. From Ike’s present position Climatology
favors an Atlantic side hurricane vs a GOM storm…..however…..as with Cat 5 Andrew in 1992 Climatology is
occasionally overruled!
We are calling for another Louisiana hit based on the last run of the European model that has been spot on this season.
224racin
#LSMdominating
if it does come into the gulf i guess ill be heading back to the coastal areas possibly
I
InDaShop
Guest
Hurricane Ike Still Headed To The Middle / Upper Texas Coast Or Western
Louisiana Next Weekend!
NOTE…..Everyone in the Houston area should gas their vehicles up tonight and keep them full for
the rest of the week. If you need to stock-up on supplies of any kind I would suggest you start that
process today as supplies will be depleted very fast the next few days. Anyone that may be
considering evacuating later this week to a hotel should make reservations ASAP…..you can always
cancel…..some hotels have emergency generators if the power goes out.
At 10 AM CDT Category 2 Hurricane Ike Was Located at…..21.1N…..78.5W
This is 418 miles East of the Western Tip of Cuba
and 1135 Miles East-Southeast of Beaumont Texas
and 1144 Miles East-Southeast of Galveston TX
Ike is Moving West (270 Degrees) Near 14 MPH…..A West-Northwest Forward
Motion is Expected the Rest of Today Through Wednesday
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 100 MPH…..With Gust to 125 MPH
Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward up to 60 Miles from the Center
Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward up to 200 Miles
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure is…..960 Mb’s…..28.35â€
Radar observations from Cuba show Ike continues moving west across Central Cuba and slowly weakening. The
center is beginning to emerge off the Southern Coast of Cuba into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. The heat
content of the water south of Cuba is the highest in the entire Atlantic Basin. This is the same general area
Gustav intensified to a Category 4 storm. Satellite and radar imagery show the central core of Ike is holding
together rather well despite crossing Cuba. It is prudent to expect Ike will begin to strengthen once the center
is over open water this afternoon and tonight. The upper level environment is very supportive for intensification
with an excellent massive diffluent outflow in all four quadrants…..especially in the eastern semicircle of the
hurricane.
Two large high pressure centers…..one located in the Western Atlantic…..and the other over West Virginia extend
southwest into the northern and eastern GOM. The steering currents associated with this combined ridge pattern
will cause Ike’s forward motion to bend to the right later today with a west-northwest heading expected at least
the next two to three days taking the hurricane across Western Cuba late Tuesday…..and into the Central GOM by
Thursday. The latest model guidance is tightly clustered along the expected track for the next 48 hours…..but then
begins to diverge some from the Central Gulf to the Texas and Louisiana Coast. NOAA is flying two synoptic
surveillance missions a day with their Gulfstream IV aircraft taking high resolution digital observations of the
Western Atlantic ridge. Also the NWS is sending up special weather balloon missions from several offices to
sample the atmosphere at all levels. This additional data is then fed into the 12z and 0z model runs to improve
the overall GFS and related models outputs.
The latest official forecast was nudged slightly to the left with the 10 AM update. My feeling is Ike has a HIGHER
probability of a Texas landfall than one somewhere to the east of Texas. My forecast window is between Matagorda
Bay and Cameron Louisiana…..with Galveston basically in the middle of that!
Next Update Will Be Late Afternoon
Louisiana Next Weekend!
NOTE…..Everyone in the Houston area should gas their vehicles up tonight and keep them full for
the rest of the week. If you need to stock-up on supplies of any kind I would suggest you start that
process today as supplies will be depleted very fast the next few days. Anyone that may be
considering evacuating later this week to a hotel should make reservations ASAP…..you can always
cancel…..some hotels have emergency generators if the power goes out.
At 10 AM CDT Category 2 Hurricane Ike Was Located at…..21.1N…..78.5W
This is 418 miles East of the Western Tip of Cuba
and 1135 Miles East-Southeast of Beaumont Texas
and 1144 Miles East-Southeast of Galveston TX
Ike is Moving West (270 Degrees) Near 14 MPH…..A West-Northwest Forward
Motion is Expected the Rest of Today Through Wednesday
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 100 MPH…..With Gust to 125 MPH
Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward up to 60 Miles from the Center
Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward up to 200 Miles
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure is…..960 Mb’s…..28.35â€
Radar observations from Cuba show Ike continues moving west across Central Cuba and slowly weakening. The
center is beginning to emerge off the Southern Coast of Cuba into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. The heat
content of the water south of Cuba is the highest in the entire Atlantic Basin. This is the same general area
Gustav intensified to a Category 4 storm. Satellite and radar imagery show the central core of Ike is holding
together rather well despite crossing Cuba. It is prudent to expect Ike will begin to strengthen once the center
is over open water this afternoon and tonight. The upper level environment is very supportive for intensification
with an excellent massive diffluent outflow in all four quadrants…..especially in the eastern semicircle of the
hurricane.
Two large high pressure centers…..one located in the Western Atlantic…..and the other over West Virginia extend
southwest into the northern and eastern GOM. The steering currents associated with this combined ridge pattern
will cause Ike’s forward motion to bend to the right later today with a west-northwest heading expected at least
the next two to three days taking the hurricane across Western Cuba late Tuesday…..and into the Central GOM by
Thursday. The latest model guidance is tightly clustered along the expected track for the next 48 hours…..but then
begins to diverge some from the Central Gulf to the Texas and Louisiana Coast. NOAA is flying two synoptic
surveillance missions a day with their Gulfstream IV aircraft taking high resolution digital observations of the
Western Atlantic ridge. Also the NWS is sending up special weather balloon missions from several offices to
sample the atmosphere at all levels. This additional data is then fed into the 12z and 0z model runs to improve
the overall GFS and related models outputs.
The latest official forecast was nudged slightly to the left with the 10 AM update. My feeling is Ike has a HIGHER
probability of a Texas landfall than one somewhere to the east of Texas. My forecast window is between Matagorda
Bay and Cameron Louisiana…..with Galveston basically in the middle of that!
Next Update Will Be Late Afternoon
muchado
Well-Known Member
comin atcha
W
wngrog
Guest
My 1st cousin has one of those old original houses on Galveston Island that is vacant and for sale for months. Not much of a matket for $1,000,000 houses on that shithole island. I am hoping for a direct hit for her sake 
All kidding aside, just keep that crap away from the MS coast.
All kidding aside, just keep that crap away from the MS coast.
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wngrog
Guest
Wyatt......Cat 4........get out. You and your family are welcome to use my guest house for as long as you like.
blacksheep10
XBJRA champ/ 555 and team Nasty codriver
his wife might but I bet he gets sent to fuggin cali to run the lights in the countrywngrog said:
blacksheep10
XBJRA champ/ 555 and team Nasty codriver
****. he just said they're staying and he thinks it was a bad call. yeah management.
Blase
Well-Known Member
You think New Orleans getting hit was bad?? Wait until all of the evacuees that never left Houston have to be evacuated again :flipper: 
. New orleans had about 1 million people at most! The area that is being evacuated around H-town has atleast 2 million and that's only counting the people ordered out! If you count all the others that will leave, don't be anywhere with in 6 hours of Houston on a major interstate 
.
. New orleans had about 1 million people at most! The area that is being evacuated around H-town has atleast 2 million and that's only counting the people ordered out! If you count all the others that will leave, don't be anywhere with in 6 hours of Houston on a major interstate .
blacksheep10
XBJRA champ/ 555 and team Nasty codriver
ya, I'm worried its gonna be bad for wyatt. Just hope his kiddo and wiff are safe
Blase
Well-Known Member
If he is staying in Houston I will be at my shop most likely. 12" concrete walls and the floor for the second store is 6" of concrete. If that's not enough theres a 1/2 thick Metal stair case to hind under. Only problem will be getting here. I'm under a mandatory evac notice so I don't know if they are letting anyone in.
I think Wyatt will be OK in his area as long as it does not hit as a 4.
Wyatt if you want some more info call me. 337-298-6322 Blase.
I think Wyatt will be OK in his area as long as it does not hit as a 4
.Wyatt if you want some more info call me. 337-298-6322 Blase.
B
bigsilly
Guest
So where is Wyatt today?
